Calculate · Assess & Decide · Analysis & Finance
Three-point effort estimates (PERT)
A PERT estimate per task (expected, margin, low, high) and a rolled-up total, from your optimistic/most-likely/pessimistic inputs.
You receive: A reviewed three-point estimate calculator + the passing test report, run on your tasks.
Part of Ship MVP
Example
A sample of what this play produces. Your result is generated for your inputs.
Items
| Estimate | Margin | Low | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 1.2 | 4.3 | 6.7 |
| 4.3 | 1 | 3.3 | 5.3 |
| 2.2 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
Inputs
- Items
Task A M B Stripe checkout integration 3 5 10 Judge worker deploy to Vercel 2 4 8 Auth hardening for paid runs 1 2 4 - Unit
- days
- Rounding
- 1
PERT worked example on three tasks from STUD's paid-fulfillment build (Stripe checkout integration, judge worker deploy, auth hardening for paid runs), estimated in days; the day figures are illustrative. Each estimate is (optimistic + 4 x most-likely + pessimistic) / 6 and each margin is (pessimistic - optimistic) / 6, both rounded to 1 decimal; low and high are the rounded estimate minus and plus the rounded margin. Check: task 1 gives (3 + 20 + 10) / 6 = 5.5 with margin 7 / 6 = 1.2 (range 4.3 to 6.7), task 2 gives 26 / 6 = 4.3 with margin 1.0 (range 3.3 to 5.3), task 3 gives 13 / 6 = 2.2 with margin 0.5 (range 1.7 to 2.7), and the rolled-up total is 5.5 + 4.3 + 2.2 = 12.0 days. Arithmetic recomputed against the tasks.py compute_three_point_estimate reference oracle, 2026-08-08.
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