Market sizing with the adequacy check (TAM, SAM, SOM)

STUD.com's own bottoms-up sizing, all figures illustrative (STUD is pre-seed, pre-revenue). The database count is 120,000 solo and early-stage founders and small product teams reachable through STUD's content-led channels (SEO, developer documentation, launch communities); we estimate that list covers about 6 percent of the worldwide population of such teams, so grossing up gives 2,000,000 addressable accounts. At the illustrative $300 average annual revenue per account (illustratively, a buyer spending about $25 a month on prepaid credit packs, roughly 1.25 plays a month at the typical 500-credit price), TAM is $600,000,000, consistent as a bottoms-up slice of the cited external estimate of an $8B AI agents market. The serviceable fraction is 0.25: English-language, self-serve teams whose work fits the current 265-play catalog. The obtainable fraction is 0.01, a deliberate first-24-months share for a content-led motion with one founder-operator: SOM is $1,500,000. The adequacy check passes, unrounded SOM of $1,500,000 is 6x the illustrative $250,000 revenue objective, clearing the source book's 2x rule of thumb with room for the coverage estimate to be off by up to 3x before the check would fail. Whether the 6 percent coverage guess and the fractions reflect reality is founder judgment, not graded arithmetic.